A restatement of the natural science evidence base concerning grassland management, grazing livestock and soil carbon storage.

Approximately a third of all annual greenhouse gas emissions globally are directly or indirectly associated with the food system, and over a half of these are linked to livestock production. In temperate oceanic regions, such as the UK, most meat and dairy is produced in extensive systems based on pasture. There is much interest in the extent to which such grassland may be able to sequester and store more carbon to partially or completely mitigate other greenhouse gas emissions in the system. However, answering this question is difficult due to context-specificity and a complex and sometimes inconsistent evidence base. This paper describes a project that set out to summarize the natural science evidence base relevant to grassland management, grazing livestock and soil carbon storage potential in as policy-neutral terms as possible. It is based on expert appraisal of a systematically assembled evidence base, followed by a wide stakeholders engagement. A series of evidence statements (in the appendix of this paper) are listed and categorized according to the nature of the underlying information, and an annotated bibliography is provided in the electronic supplementary material.

Positive effects of tree diversity on tropical forest restoration in a field-scale experiment.

Experiments under controlled conditions have established that ecosystem functioning is generally positively related to levels of biodiversity, but it is unclear how widespread these effects are in real-world settings and whether they can be harnessed for ecosystem restoration. We used remote-sensing data from the first decade of a long-term, field-scale tropical restoration experiment initiated in 2002 to test how the diversity of planted trees affected recovery of a 500-ha area of selectively logged forest measured using multiple sources of satellite data. Replanting using species-rich mixtures of tree seedlings with higher phylogenetic and functional diversity accelerated restoration of remotely sensed estimates of aboveground biomass, canopy cover, and leaf area index. Our results are consistent with a positive relationship between biodiversity and ecosystem functioning in the lowland dipterocarp rainforests of SE Asia and demonstrate that using diverse mixtures of species can enhance their initial recovery after logging.

Sustainable pathways towards climate and biodiversity goals in the UK: the importance of managing land-use synergies and trade-offs.

Agricultural and environmental policies are being fundamentally reviewed and redesigned in the UK following its exit from the European Union. The UK government and the Devolved Administrations recognise that current land use is not sustainable and that there is now an unprecedented opportunity to define a better land strategy that responds fully to the interconnected challenges of climate change, biodiversity loss and sustainable development. This paper presents evidence from three pathways (current trends, sustainable medium ambition, and sustainable high ambition) to mid-century that were co-created with UK policymakers. The pathways were applied to a national integrated food and land-use model (the FABLE calculator) to explore potential synergies and trade-offs between achieving multiple sustainability targets under limited land availability and constraints to balance food supply and demand at national and global levels. Results show that under the Current Trends pathway all unprotected open natural land would be converted to urban, agriculture and afforested land, with the consequence that from 2030 onwards tree planting targets could not be met. In contrast, the two sustainable pathways illustrate how dietary change, agricultural productivity improvements and waste reduction can free up land for nature recovery and carbon sequestration. This enables a transition to a sustainable food and land-use system that provides a net carbon sink with up to 44% of land able to support biodiversity conservation. We highlight key trade-offs and synergies, which are important to consider for designing and implementing emerging national policies. These include the strong dependence of climate, food and biodiversity targets on dietary shifts, sustainable improvements in agricultural productivity, improved land-use design for protecting and restoring nature, and rapid reductions in food loss and waste. Supplementary Information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11625-022-01242-8.

A restatement of the natural science evidence base regarding the source, spread and control of Campylobacter species causing human disease.

Food poisoning caused by Campylobacter (campylobacteriosis) is the most prevalent bacterial disease associated with the consumption of poultry, beef, lamb and pork meat and unpasteurized dairy products. A variety of livestock industry, food chain and public health interventions have been implemented or proposed to reduce disease prevalence, some of which entail costs for producers and retailers. This paper describes a project that set out to summarize the natural science evidence base relevant to campylobacteriosis control in as policy-neutral terms as possible. A series of evidence statements are listed and categorized according to the nature of the underlying information. The evidence summary forms the appendix to this paper and an annotated bibliography is provided in the electronic supplementary material.

Income, consumer preferences, and the future of livestock-derived food demand.

In recent decades there has been a sustained and substantial shift in human diets across the globe towards including more livestock-derived foods. Continuing debates scrutinize how these dietary shifts affect human health, the natural environment, and livelihoods. However, amidst these debates there remain unanswered questions about how demand for livestock-derived foods may evolve over the upcoming decades for a range of scenarios for key drivers of change including human population, income, and consumer preferences. Future trends in human population and income in our scenarios were sourced from three of the shared socioeconomic pathways. We used scenario-based modeling to show that average protein demand for red meat (beef, sheep, goats, and pork), poultry, dairy milk, and eggs across the globe would increase by 14% per person and 38% in total between the year 2020 and the year 2050 if trends in income and population continue along a mid-range trajectory. The fastest per person rates of increase were 49% in South Asia and 55% in sub-Saharan Africa. We show that per person demand for red meat in high-income countries would decline by 2.8% if income elasticities of demand (a partial proxy for consumer preferences, based on the responsiveness of demand to income changes) in high-income countries decline by 100% by 2050 under a mid-range trajectory for per person income growth, compared to their current trajectory. Prices are an important driver of demand, and our results demonstrate that the result of a decline in red meat demand in high-income countries is strongly related to rising red meat prices, as projected by our scenario-based modeling. If the decline in the income elasticity of demand occurred in all countries rather than only in high-income countries, then per person red meat demand in high-income countries would actually increase in 2050 by 8.9% because the income elasticity-driven decline in global demand reduces prices, and the effect of lower prices outweighs the effect of a decline in the income elasticity of demand. Our results demonstrate the importance of interactions between income, prices, and the income elasticity of demand in projecting future demand for livestock-derived foods. We complement the existing literature on food systems and global change by providing quantitative evidence about the possible space for the future demand of livestock-derived foods, which has important implications for human health and the natural environment.

Intraspecific variation in symbiont density in an insect-microbe symbiosis.

Many insects host vertically transmitted microbes, which can confer benefits to their hosts but are costly to maintain and regulate. A key feature of these symbioses is variation: for example, symbiont density can vary among host and symbiont genotypes. However, the evolutionary forces maintaining this variation remain unclear. We studied variation in symbiont density using the pea aphid (Acyrthosiphon pisum) and the bacterium Regiella insecticola, a symbiont that can protect its host against fungal pathogens. We found that relative symbiont density varies both between two Regiella phylogenetic clades and among aphid "biotypes." Higher density symbiont infections are correlated with stronger survival costs, but variation in density has little effect on the protection Regiella provides against fungi. Instead, we found that in some aphid genotypes, a dramatic decline in symbiont density precedes the loss of a symbiont infection. Together, our data suggest that the optimal density of a symbiont infection is likely different from the perspective of aphid and microbial fitness. Regiella might prevent loss by maintaining high within-host densities, but hosts do not appear to benefit from higher symbiont numbers and may be advantaged by losing costly symbionts in certain environments. The standing variation in symbiont density observed in natural populations could therefore be maintained by antagonistic coevolutionary interactions between hosts and their symbiotic microbes.

80 questions for UK biological security.

Multiple national and international trends and drivers are radically changing what biological security means for the United Kingdom (UK). New technologies present novel opportunities and challenges, and globalisation has created new pathways and increased the speed, volume and routes by which organisms can spread. The UK Biological Security Strategy (2018) acknowledges the importance of research on biological security in the UK. Given the breadth of potential research, a targeted agenda identifying the questions most critical to effective and coordinated progress in different disciplines of biological security is required. We used expert elicitation to generate 80 policy-relevant research questions considered by participants to have the greatest impact on UK biological security. Drawing on a collaboratively-developed set of 450 questions, proposed by 41 experts from academia, industry and the UK government (consulting 168 additional experts) we subdivided the final 80 questions into six categories: bioengineering; communication and behaviour; disease threats (including pandemics); governance and policy; invasive alien species; and securing biological materials and securing against misuse. Initially, the questions were ranked through a voting process and then reduced and refined to 80 during a one-day workshop with 35 participants from a variety of disciplines. Consistently emerging themes included: the nature of current and potential biological security threats, the efficacy of existing management actions, and the most appropriate future options. The resulting questions offer a research agenda for biological security in the UK that can assist the targeting of research resources and inform the implementation of the UK Biological Security Strategy. These questions include research that could aid with the mitigation of Covid-19, and preparation for the next pandemic. We hope that our structured and rigorous approach to creating a biological security research agenda will be replicated in other countries and regions. The world, not just the UK, is in need of a thoughtful approach to directing biological security research to tackle the emerging issues.

Modelling the suppression of a malaria vector using a CRISPR-Cas9 gene drive to reduce female fertility.

BACKGROUND: Gene drives based on CRISPR-Cas9 technology are increasingly being considered as tools for reducing the capacity of mosquito populations to transmit malaria, and one of the most promising options is driving endonuclease genes that reduce the fertility of female mosquitoes. In particular, there is much interest in constructs that target the conserved mosquito doublesex (dsx) gene such that the emergence of functional drive-resistant alleles is unlikely. Proof of principle that these constructs can lead to substantial population suppression has been obtained in population cages, and they are being evaluated for use in sub-Saharan Africa. Here, we use simulation modelling to understand the factors affecting the spread of this type of gene drive over a one million-square kilometre area of West Africa containing substantial environmental and social heterogeneity. RESULTS: We found that a driving endonuclease gene targeting female fertility could lead to substantial reductions in malaria vector populations on a regional scale. The exact level of suppression is influenced by additional fitness costs of the transgene such as the somatic expression of Cas9, and its deposition in sperm or eggs leading to damage to the zygote. In the absence of these costs, or of emergent drive-resistant alleles that restore female fertility, population suppression across the study area is predicted to stabilise at ~ 95% 4 years after releases commence. Small additional fitness costs do not greatly affect levels of suppression, though if the fertility of females whose offspring transmit the construct drops by more than ~ 40%, then population suppression is much less efficient. We show the suppression potential of a drive allele with high fitness costs can be enhanced by engineering it also to express male bias in the progeny of transgenic males. Irrespective of the strength of the drive allele, the spatial model predicts somewhat less suppression than equivalent non-spatial models, in particular in highly seasonal regions where dry season stochasticity reduces drive efficiency. We explored the robustness of these results to uncertainties in mosquito ecology, in particular their method of surviving the dry season and their dispersal rates. CONCLUSIONS: The modelling presented here indicates that considerable suppression of vector populations can be achieved within a few years of using a female sterility gene drive, though the impact is likely to be heterogeneous in space and time.

Modelling the global economic consequences of a major African swine fever outbreak in China.

African swine fever is a deadly porcine disease that has spread into East Asia where it is having a detrimental effect on pork production. However, the implications of African swine fever on the global pork market are poorly explored. Two linked global economic models are used to explore the consequences of different scales of the epidemic on pork prices and on the prices of other food types and animal feeds. The models project global pork prices increasing by 17-85% and unmet demand driving price increases of other meats. This price rise reduces the quantity of pork demanded but also spurs production in other parts of the world, and imports make up half the Chinese losses. Demand for, and prices of, food types such as beef and poultry rise, while prices for maize and soybean used in feed decline. There is a slight decline in average per capita calorie availability in China, indicating the importance of assuring the dietary needs of low-income populations. Outside China, projections for calorie availability are mixed, reflecting the direct and indirect effects of the African swine fever epidemic on food and feed markets.

Host relatedness influences the composition of aphid microbiomes.

Animals are host to a community of microbes, collectively referred to as their microbiome, that can play a key role in their hosts' biology. The bacterial endosymbionts of insects have a particularly strong influence on their hosts, but despite their importance we still know little about the factors that influence the composition of insect microbial communities. Here, we ask: what is the relative importance of host relatedness and host ecology in structuring symbiont communities of diverse aphid species? We used next-generation sequencing to compare the microbiomes of 46 aphid species with known host plant affiliations. We find that relatedness between aphid species is the key factor explaining the microbiome composition, with more closely related aphid species housing more similar bacterial communities. Endosymbionts dominate the microbial communities, and we find a novel bacterium in the genus Sphingopyxis that is associated with numerous aphid species feeding exclusively on trees. The influence of ecology was less pronounced than that of host relatedness. Our results suggest that co-adaptation between insect species and their facultative symbionts is a more important determinant of symbiont species presence in aphids than shared ecology of hosts.

A restatement of the natural science evidence base on the effects of endocrine disrupting chemicals on wildlife.

Endocrine disrupting chemicals (EDCs) are substances that alter the function of the endocrine system and consequently cause adverse effects to humans or wildlife. The release of particular EDCs into the environment has been shown to negatively affect certain wildlife populations and has led to restrictions on the use of some EDCs. Current chemical regulations aim to balance the industrial, agricultural and/or pharmaceutical benefits of using these substances with their demonstrated or potential harm to human health or the environment. A summary is provided of the natural science evidence base informing the regulation of chemicals released into the environment that may have endocrine disrupting effects on wildlife. This summary is in a format (a 'restatement') intended to be policy-neutral and accessible to informed, but not expert, policy-makers and stakeholders.

Modelling the potential of genetic control of malaria mosquitoes at national scale.

BACKGROUND: The persistence of malaria in large parts of sub-Saharan Africa has motivated the development of novel tools to complement existing control programmes, including gene-drive technologies to modify mosquito vector populations. Here, we use a stochastic simulation model to explore the potential of using a driving-Y chromosome to suppress vector populations in a 106 km2 area of West Africa including all of Burkina Faso. RESULTS: The consequence of driving-Y introductions is predicted to vary across the landscape, causing elimination of the target species in some regions and suppression in others. We explore how this variation is determined by environmental conditions, mosquito behaviour, and the properties of the gene-drive. Seasonality is particularly important, and we find population elimination is more likely in regions with mild dry seasons whereas suppression is more likely in regions with strong seasonality. CONCLUSIONS: Despite the spatial heterogeneity, we suggest that repeated introductions of modified mosquitoes over a few years into a small fraction of human settlements may be sufficient to substantially reduce the overall number of mosquitoes across the entire geographic area.

Managing nitrogen to restore water quality in China.

The nitrogen cycle has been radically changed by human activities1. China consumes nearly one third of the world's nitrogen fertilizers. The excessive application of fertilizers2,3 and increased nitrogen discharge from livestock, domestic and industrial sources have resulted in pervasive water pollution. Quantifying a nitrogen 'boundary'4 in heterogeneous environments is important for the effective management of local water quality. Here we use a combination of water-quality observations and simulated nitrogen discharge from agricultural and other sources to estimate spatial patterns of nitrogen discharge into water bodies across China from 1955 to 2014. We find that the critical surface-water quality standard (1.0 milligrams of nitrogen per litre) was being exceeded in most provinces by the mid-1980s, and that current rates of anthropogenic nitrogen discharge (14.5 ± 3.1 megatonnes of nitrogen per year) to fresh water are about 2.7 times the estimated 'safe' nitrogen discharge threshold (5.2 ± 0.7 megatonnes of nitrogen per year). Current efforts to reduce pollution through wastewater treatment and by improving cropland nitrogen management can partially remedy this situation. Domestic wastewater treatment has helped to reduce net discharge by 0.7 ± 0.1 megatonnes in 2014, but at high monetary and energy costs. Improved cropland nitrogen management could remove another 2.3 ± 0.3 megatonnes of nitrogen per year-about 25 per cent of the excess discharge to fresh water. Successfully restoring a clean water environment in China will further require transformational changes to boost the national nutrient recycling rate from its current average of 36 per cent to about 87 per cent, which is a level typical of traditional Chinese agriculture. Although ambitious, such a high level of nitrogen recycling is technologically achievable at an estimated capital cost of approximately 100 billion US dollars and operating costs of 18-29 billion US dollars per year, and could provide co-benefits such as recycled wastewater for crop irrigation and improved environmental quality and ecosystem services.

Intrinsic pre-zygotic reproductive isolation of distantly related pea aphid host races.

Human activities may weaken or destroy reproductive isolation between young taxa, leading to their fusion with consequences for population and community ecology. Pea aphid host races are adapted to different legume taxa, providing a degree of pre-mating isolation mediated by habitat choice. Yet, all races can feed and reproduce on the broad bean (Vicia faba), a major crop which represents a 'universal host plant', which can promote hybridization between races. Here, we ask if pea aphid host races have reproductive barriers which prevent or reduce gene flow when they co-occur on the universal host plant. We observed mating behaviour, female survival, number of eggs and egg fertilization rates for three types of crosses: among individuals of the same host race, between closely related host races and between distantly related host races. We did not find significant differences in mating behaviour and female survival among the three types of crosses. However, we observed a drastic reduction in the number of eggs laid, and in the number of fertilized eggs, in distant crosses. We conclude that widespread broad bean cultivation in agriculture may predispose closely related-but not distantly related-host races to hybridize, disrupting reproductive isolation between incipient species.

Health-motivated taxes on red and processed meat: A modelling study on optimal tax levels and associated health impacts.

BACKGROUND: The consumption of red and processed meat has been associated with increased mortality from chronic diseases, and as a result, it has been classified by the World Health Organization as carcinogenic (processed meat) and probably carcinogenic (red meat) to humans. One policy response is to regulate red and processed meat consumption similar to other carcinogens and foods of public health concerns. Here we describe a market-based approach of taxing red and processed meat according to its health impacts. METHODS: We calculated economically optimal tax levels for 149 world regions that would account for (internalize) the health costs associated with ill-health from red and processed meat consumption, and we used a coupled modelling framework to estimate the impacts of optimal taxation on consumption, health costs, and non-communicable disease mortality. Health impacts were estimated using a global comparative risk assessment framework, and economic responses were estimated using international data on health costs, prices, and price elasticities. FINDINGS: The health-related costs to society attributable to red and processed meat consumption in 2020 amounted to USD 285 billion (sensitivity intervals based on epidemiological uncertainty (SI), 93-431), three quarters of which were due to processed meat consumption. Under optimal taxation, prices for processed meat increased by 25% on average, ranging from 1% in low-income countries to over 100% in high-income countries, and prices for red meat increased by 4%, ranging from 0.2% to over 20%. Consumption of processed meat decreased by 16% on average, ranging from 1% to 25%, whilst red meat consumption remained stable as substitution for processed meat compensated price-related reductions. The number of deaths attributable to red and processed meat consumption decreased by 9% (222,000; SI, 38,000-357,000), and attributable health costs decreased by 14% (USD 41 billion; SI, 10-57) globally, in each case with greatest reductions in high and middle-income countries. INTERPRETATION: Including the social health cost of red and processed meat consumption in the price of red and processed meat could lead to significant health and environmental benefits, in particular in high and middle-income countries. The optimal tax levels estimated in this study are context-specific and can complement the simple rules of thumb currently used for setting health-motivated tax levels.

Options for keeping the food system within environmental limits.

The food system is a major driver of climate change, changes in land use, depletion of freshwater resources, and pollution of aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems through excessive nitrogen and phosphorus inputs. Here we show that between 2010 and 2050, as a result of expected changes in population and income levels, the environmental effects of the food system could increase by 50-90% in the absence of technological changes and dedicated mitigation measures, reaching levels that are beyond the planetary boundaries that define a safe operating space for humanity. We analyse several options for reducing the environmental effects of the food system, including dietary changes towards healthier, more plant-based diets, improvements in technologies and management, and reductions in food loss and waste. We find that no single measure is enough to keep these effects within all planetary boundaries simultaneously, and that a synergistic combination of measures will be needed to sufficiently mitigate the projected increase in environmental pressures.

Meat consumption, health, and the environment.

Both the global average per capita consumption of meat and the total amount of meat consumed are rising, driven by increasing average individual incomes and by population growth. The consumption of different types of meat and meat products has substantial effects on people's health, and livestock production can have major negative effects on the environment. Here, we explore the evidence base for these assertions and the options policy-makers have should they wish to intervene to affect population meat consumption. We highlight where more research is required and the great importance of integrating insights from the natural and social sciences.

Pathway to Deployment of Gene Drive Mosquitoes as a Potential Biocontrol Tool for Elimination of Malaria in Sub-Saharan Africa: Recommendations of a Scientific Working Group†.

Gene drive technology offers the promise for a high-impact, cost-effective, and durable method to control malaria transmission that would make a significant contribution to elimination. Gene drive systems, such as those based on clustered regularly interspaced short palindromic repeats (CRISPR)/CRISPR associated protein, have the potential to spread beneficial traits through interbreeding populations of malaria mosquitoes. However, the characteristics of this technology have raised concerns that necessitate careful consideration of the product development pathway. A multidisciplinary working group considered the implications of low-threshold gene drive systems on the development pathway described in the World Health Organization Guidance Framework for testing genetically modified (GM) mosquitoes, focusing on reduction of malaria transmission by Anopheles gambiae s.l. mosquitoes in Africa as a case study. The group developed recommendations for the safe and ethical testing of gene drive mosquitoes, drawing on prior experience with other vector control tools, GM organisms, and biocontrol agents. These recommendations are organized according to a testing plan that seeks to maximize safety by incrementally increasing the degree of human and environmental exposure to the investigational product. As with biocontrol agents, emphasis is placed on safety evaluation at the end of physically confined laboratory testing as a major decision point for whether to enter field testing. Progression through the testing pathway is based on fulfillment of safety and efficacy criteria, and is subject to regulatory and ethical approvals, as well as social acceptance. The working group identified several resources that were considered important to support responsible field testing of gene drive mosquitoes.